The 2021 series on team offense continues with the the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished third in the majors and the National League in 2020 with 5.42 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Jayce Tingler order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Padres numbers from 2017-2020. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.93
- Probable lineup: 4.70
- Worst lineup: 4.36
- Regressed lineup: 4.41
The LAT prefer Manny Machado batting second and Fernando Tatis, Jr. batting fourth to the default lineup batting Tatis second and Machado third. A number of the lineups flip those two, so a batting order that starts with Trent Grisham and Tatis is perfectly reasonable.
The main disagreement comes in the clean-up slot where the Padres choice of Eric Hosmer is seen by the LAT as more of a number seven hitter. It made we wonder if the Musings Marcel projection might be off, but it is not out of line with the many projections FanGraphs publishes. The Padres, with great OBPs up and down he order, can do better than Hosmer fourth.
That high team OBP should help to wear down opposing pitchers. This team will work counts to get on base, and has enough power to drive those runners around. It should be another fun offensive season for Padres fans.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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