The 2021 series on team offense continues with the the New York Yankees. The Yankees finished fourth in the majors and first in the American League in 2020 with 5.25 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Aaron Boone order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.67
- Probable lineup: 5.58
- Worst lineup: 5.45
- Regressed lineup: 4.97
The Yankees lineup projects to be good and consistent throughout the order. Eight of the nine slots project to an OBP between .345 and .369, with six of those in the mid .340s. Seven of the nine slots project to a slugging percentage between .473 and .516. Most of the players present quite similar OBP/Slug profiles, which makes them fairly interchangeable. The spread between the best and worst Yankees lineup is just 0.22, so any random lineup is going to be pretty good.
It might be even better than the projections. Musings Marcels likely under projects the power of Giancarlo Stanton. The various projection systems at FanGraphs put him well over .500, while the Marcels peg him at .479. Note that the query that generates the numbers did not make any adjustments for the short 2020 season in terms of averages. Stanton did not play much the last two seasons, so his numbers get regressed toward the league average. Given the rest of his career, I understand why most systems project him higher. I’m willing to be more conservative. If Stanton winds up injured again, the .479 for those who fill in would be an excellent replacement.
As for the lineup itself, Gary Sanchez batting ninth comes as a surprise, especially with Aaron Judge batting second. The common wisdom for decades was to bat the best hitter third (high OBP, high slugging percentage) so that he would come to the plate with a chance of having a man on base to drive in. (If the two table setter have .350 OBPs, the probability of at least one of them reaching base in front of the three hitter is about 0.67.) If you move that hitter to the second slot to provide more plate appearances for him over the season, one would still want a high probability of someone being on base in front of him. So bat a higher OBP player ninth. OBP represents Sanchez’s weak spot.
I suspect a stigma still exists to batting ninth, with players believing the slot indicates the worst hitter on the team. At this point, every starter on the Yankees can point to being a better hitter than Gary Sanchez. How can the Yankees say to Gio Urshela, “We want you to bat ninth.” Urshela produced the opposite career of Sanchez, starting off as a poor hitter and working his way to a great one. So the Yankees give up a small amount of runs per game to keep the rest of the lineup happy.
For the most part, the lineup is consistent with the LAT. Look at lineup 25. It has DJ LeMahieu followed by Judge. Three through seven is the default lineup with Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier switched in the five and six slots. Sanchez bats eighth and Aaron Hicks ninth. Basically, the flow of the lineup is correct.
The production of the order will once again come down to the health of the big bats. If Stanton and Judge play 140 games each, the Yankees will be fine.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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