The 2021 series on team offense continues with the the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays finished seventh in the majors and third in the American League in 2020 with 5.03 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Charlie Montoyo order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.41
- Probable lineup: 5.30
- Worst lineup: 5.14
- Regressed lineup: 4.79
The projected lineup puts the two recently acquired veterans at the top of the order. George Springer continues his role as a lead-off man, where he saw much success in Houston. Marcus Semien bats second, although his history in the slot is not good.
The LAT prefers the ballplayer relatives at the top of the order, Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Springer’s power works really well in the fifth slot behind those four high OBP players, while Semien would serve as the secondary lead-off man in the ninth slot.
The Blue Jay may be going with the veterans at the top more for psychology. Toronto made the playoffs last year with no pressure on them to do so. Now there will be pressure. The team added good players to their rapidly maturing core of youngsters. They will be playing in front of fans for the first time since 2019. Springer and Semien at the top of the order literally lead the youngsters into battle. As the season develops, maybe there is movement up for the youngsters, but his is a perfectly good way to start the season.
Like most of the lineups examined so far, this one has so much talent that even a poor ordering of the players yields good results. There are some top scoring LAT lineups that use Springer, Bichette, and Semien in the top three. The biggest boost to scoring would likely come from batting Danny Jansen, likely the least productive hitter on the team, eighth. This should be a fun year for Toronto fans when it comes to offense.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series: