The 2021 series on team offense continues with the the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished eighth in the majors and fifth in the National League in 2020 with 4.98 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Gabe Kapler order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Giants numbers from 2017-2020. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.58
- Probable lineup: 4.33
- Worst lineup: 4.00
- Regressed lineup: 4.17
The LAT and the default lineup disagree on Buster Posey. Posey’s power disappeared in the two years before he opted out of the 2020 season, which leaves a batter with a decent OBP who should be starting an offensive sequence, not ending one. Batting Posey at the bottom of the order gives the Giants a secondary lead-off man, but also puts less wear and tear on Posey as he returns to catching duties.
Note that the LAT agrees somewhat with Tommy La Stella, Donovan Solano, and Mike Yastrzemski at the top of the order, but the LAT also likes Brandon Belt near the top. Kapler agrees with this:
Kapler will mix up the heart of the lineup depending on the matchups, and he also figures to have Buster Posey and Brandon Belt — both of whom have a great feel for the strike zone — right near the top.
MSN.com
Batting Posey ninth gets him near the top and may help Posey physically. Maybe a year off gave his body time to heal, and his power comes back. If and when it does, then Kapler can move the team icon back to a power position. My feeling is that the tenth best LAT order should be Kapler’s aim.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series: