The division previews continue with the AL Central. This year uses a different form of evaluation. Rather than the previous year’s WAR, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine or ten position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Minnesota Twins

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.71
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.35
• Core Winning Percentage: .632

The Twins are once again the class of the division. They own the highest core position player RC/G average, with a very good pitching staff. While the pitching core average is not the best in the division, they are the only team with all six core pitchers under 5.00 RC/G against.

There is some downside in this lineup, as Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson project as their best offensive players. Both are getting up in age, and a decline might be expected. I’d like to see Luis Arraez playing second base more for his offense, which I suspect will be better than Jorge Polanco. Watch for that shift was the season progresses.

This is an extremely solid team. The Twins are a good bet, but not a sure bet for another division title.

Chicago White Sox

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.64
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.62
• Core Winning Percentage: .599

The White Sox are very close to the Twins on offense. While they don’t project to have a superstar hitter, they do boast an extremely consistent lineup. They are strong up the middle, with their 5.73 RC/G average at C, 2B, SS, CF by far the best in the division. Jose Abreu at first and Yoan Moncada at third complement this group, both projecting to better than 6.0 RC/G.

On the pitching side, Dylan Cease proves the weak point that keeps the White Sox behind the Twins. Cease is about to enter this prime years, and if he can get his walks under control, the White Sox will also start five good pitchers. Liam Hendricks projects as the best closer in the division.

Chicago is out of their tanking phase, and should battle for a division title this season.

Cleveland Indians

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.47
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.29
• Core Winning Percentage: .620

The Indians, despite the losses of Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor, still project to a possible division victory. While the offense is okay, the Indians core pitchers project to the lowest RC/G against in the division. Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Triston McKenize look like they’ll give Cleveland a solid 1-2-3 in the rotation, and James Karinchak is not far behind Liam Hendricks.

Jose Ramirez now leads the offense, and won’t get much help from the rest of the batting order. In a season where the ball does not travel as far, Ramirez’s ability to put the ball in play and hit the gaps might finally bring him to the top of the MVP voting.

If the Indians kept Lindor, they might have been the favorites to win the division, but they are right in the hunt anyway.

Kansas City Royals

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.52
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.76
• Core Winning Percentage: .574

The Royals have every right to be excited about this season. They have a better projected core offense than the Indians, and their core pitchers are on a par with the White Sox.

The addition of Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi give them two players who are a bit more willing to take a walk than a usual Royals hitter. That should expand the offensive context for the rest of the team, and might give Jorge Soler more RBI opportunities. While Michael Taylor won’t light things on fire with his bat, he will do a good job paroling the big outfield at Kauffman Stadium.

Brad Keller and Brady Singer give the Royals rotation a solid 1-2 punch. Kansas City will need things to break right, but they are not that far from surprising the rest of the division.

Detroit Tigers

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.16
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.04
• Core Winning Percentage: .511

The Tigers core offense projects as the weakest in the division by a large margin. They are a bit hamstrung by the contract extension given to Miguel Cabrera after the 2013 season, which seemed to me to be an unforced error at the time. A four year extension with options would have made more sense. Cabrera would have one good year under the new contract, but he’s been in negative WAR territory since. The Tigers are getting nothing for their money. Cabrera plays positions where high offense is expected, and he just doesn’t produce that anymore. As for the rest of the lineup, Will Castro projects to be the best hitter of the core, but he is by no means a superstar.

The pitching projects to be better than in 2020, so that at least is a step in the right direction. Maybe Julio Teheran returns to form and the pitching makes a leap, but it looks like another last-place finish for the Tigers.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Minnesota Twins 35%
• Cleveland Indians 30%
• Chicago White Sox 20%
• Kansas City Royals 13%
• Detroit Tigers 2%

This looks like a good three-team race, with an outside chance of the Royals joining in. This might be a good division for a massive tie scenario.