The division previews continue with the AL West. This year uses a different form of evaluation. Rather than the previous year’s WAR, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine or ten position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.64
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.52
- Core Winning Percentage: .609
The starting rotation represents the strength of the Athletics in 2021. Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo, and Chris Bassitt give the team an outstanding front three, and the four and five slots are not bad. The front three walked few batters and allowed few home runs in 2020, a good formula for success.
Despite finishing first in 2020, the Oakland did revamp their offense a bit. Elvis Andrus replaces Marcus Semien at short, Jed Lowrie takes over second from Tony Kemp, and Mitch Moreland replaces Kris Davis at designated hitter. I’m not sure these moves improve the team, but they will keep Oakand in contention for a playoff slot.
Houston Astros
- Position Player RC/G Average: 6.19
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.35
- Core Winning Percentage: .670
The Astros sit at the opposite pole from the Marlins. Houston was a great team on paper that underperformed in 2020, but still made the playoffs with a losing record. The appears poised to retake first place in the division in 2021.
Alex Bregman projects as the superstar of the team, but Yordan Alvarez looks like he might give the veteran a run for his money in that category. Myles Straw may not live up to George Springer‘s standards, but the team has plenty of other good bats, the core position players project to the highest average RC/G in the division, 6.19.
The same is true on the pitching side, with the core projecting to a 4.35 RC/G against, lowest in the division. Three of their starters, Zack Greinke, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy project to be under four runs. This should be the top team in the division.
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.17
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.00
- Core Winning Percentage: .516
It appears the Mariners playoff drought will reach twenty seasons this year. They project a position play core of 5.17 RC/G, the lowest in the division. Kyle Lewis is the only hitter in this group projected to top 6.0 RC/G, and he does so just barely.
The Mariners could get away with this if their pitching was great, but their 5.00 RC/G against is the second highest in the division. Maybe James Paxton stays healthy and puts up a great year. There is upside in Justus Sheffield, as he improved in 2020, but his career is still a small sample size.
The Mariners always appear to be moving toward getting better, but never really get there. I am not hopeful for this season.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.92
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.15
- Core Winning Percentage: ..569
Mike Trout projects to 10.04 RC/G, Anthony Rendon projects to 8.28 RC/G, and the Angels once again look like a third place team. Part of that is a first baseman, Albert Pujols, who projects to just 4.11 RC/G.
If a team has a problem at first base, the problem should be fairly easy to solve. If they find a bat that can produce 6.0 RC/G and stand at first and catch the ball thrown, the Angels would be in contention. Instead, they stick with Pujols because they refuse to pay him to sit out the season.
On top of that, the two corner outfielder also come in under 5.0 RC/G. That’s three positions that usually produce some offense where the Angels are the worst in the division. There should be no excuse for this.
The core pitching rates as the worst in the division. There is upside as Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation. We’ll see if his body withstands the strain of double duty pitching and hitter this time. I’d rather see him hitting everyday.
It looks to me like Mike Trout will miss the playoffs again.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.29
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.94
- Core Winning Percentage: .535
The Rangers are not that good and not that bad. The position player core has no superstars, but no one is terrible. Dane Dunning and Mike Foltynewicz might turn out to be a decent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty about their projections.
It’s a very different team than last season. My guess is that .500 is a ceiling for this squad, and that would be a nice step forward for the team.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
- Houston Astros 50%
- Oakland Athletics 35%
- LAnaheim Angels 10%
- Texas Rangers 3%
- Seattle Mariners 2%
This is a clear hierarchy of the cores in this division. None of the teams are really close to each other. The Astros have both the talent and the depth, and this will be their division to lose.