The division previews continue with the NL Central. This year uses a different form of evaluation. Rather than the previous year’s WAR, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine or ten position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.
The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Note that the core winning percentage is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.
Chicago Cubs
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.97
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.88
- Core Winning Percentage: .600
Reading about the Cubs all winter might lead one to believe the club had fallen off a cliff. The starting rotation certainly took a hit over the winter, but the offense remains very close to the offense that scored enough runs to win the NL Central in 2020.
Kyle Hendricks once again anchors the rotation. Jake Arrieta returns to the club after a stint in Philadelphia. With a projected RC/G of 5.69, he’s no longer an ace. The Cubs pitchers are the weak spot with the core RC/G average in the middle of the division.
The offense, however, posts the highest RC/G in the division. This is a team with no offensive superstar, but everyone is very good. David Bote, at 5.30 RC/G is at the low end, with Anthony Rizzo‘s 6.77 the high projection for the core. Apart from the pitcher’s slot, there won’t be an easy out in the Cubs lineup. The team should certainly compete for at least a wild card if not the division title.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.55
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.40
- Core Winning Percentage: .614
The Cardinals made the big splash of the winter with the trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado. His 7.26 project RC/G ranks first on the offensive core, a run ahead of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Pushed out of the starting lineup is Matt Carpenter, who projects ahead of almost everyone else in the core at 5.50 RC/G. I suspect he’ll be playing more than the depth chart indicates.
The strength of the Cardinals, however comes from their core pitchers. Their projected 4.40 RC/G against is the lowest by a smidgen in the division*. Jack Flaherty and John Gant both project under four runs, and Adam Wainwright might beat his high projection. They were good enough to make the playoffs in 2020, and they should be better in 2021.
*Smidgen in the Division would be a great names for a band.
Cincinnati Reds
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.78
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.13
- Core Winning Percentage: .559
The Reds are comparable to the Cubs, but with a few holes that may keep them out of the playoffs. On offense they play no superstars, but unlike the Cubs they have weak offense at catcher with Tucker Barnhart and centerfield with Nick Senzel. Like the Cubs they have two good starters in Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, but Jeff Hoffman projects to over seven RC/G against. This was supposed to be a weak division, but it’s not looking that weak, and those holes may sink the Reds chance this season.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.73
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.41
- Core Winning Percentage: .628
The Brewers core pitching sets the smidgen behind Cardinals. Brand Woodruff, the Milwaukee ace, projects at 3.67 RC per game, second to Jack Flaherty. Josh Hader at 3.09 RC per game comes in as the best closer.
The position player core gets a big boost from Christian Yelich‘s 8.80 RC/G. The Marcels still see him as an MVP candidate. I like that the team moved Keston Hiura to first base to better take advantage of his offense and while Kolten Wong takes over at second base. The outfield, with Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Jackie Bradley, Jr., should help the pitchers keep their ERAs low. This team should be back in contention in 2020.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Position Player RC/G Average: 5.41
- Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.44
- Core Winning Percentage: .496
The Pirates are as bad as you think they are. The fans can still have fun watching Ke’Bryan Hayes develop and Bryan Reynolds knock the ball around a bit. Unfortunately, they have the lowest projected position core RC/G, and the highest projected pitching core RC/G against. That is not a formula for success.
Predictions
Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.
- Milwaukee Brewers 35%
- St. Louis Cardinals 30%
- Chicago Cubs 25%
- Cincinnati Reds 8%
- Pittsburgh Pirates 2%
This should be a three-team race for the division title, maybe four if everything goes right for the Reds. The Brewers have a more balanced offense than the Cardinals, and that should win in the end.