For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.303 — Trea Turner batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.292 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
- 0.287 — Starlin Castro batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.284 — Juan Soto batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.282 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.280 — James McCann batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.279 — Josh Harrison batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.279 — Michael Brantley batting against Nick Margevicius.
- 0.278 — Jeff McNeil batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.277 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dallas Keuchel.
The Red Sox and White Sox play a double header today, so be careful picking from those games. Bumgarner allowed a .367 BA so far this season, 22 for 60, which is why the Nationals are dominating the list.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.292, 0.717 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
- 0.303, 0.714 — Trea Turner batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.271, 0.713 — Tim Anderson batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.277, 0.706 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.260, 0.703 — Tim Anderson batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.265, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Andrew Kittredge.
- 0.272, 0.698 — Donovan Solano batting against Pablo Lopez.
- 0.279, 0.695 — Michael Brantley batting against Nick Margevicius.
- 0.267, 0.690 — Justin Turner batting against Blake Snell.
- 0.278, 0.688 — Jeff McNeil batting against Antonio Senzatela.
Lopez is not confirmed for the game two start against the Red Sox. Turner and Bogaerts are tied for the consensus first pick, and give that Turner is more likely to play a nine inning game, I’d probably go with him.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
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