For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.281 — Justin Turner batting against Justus Sheffield.
- 0.279 — Tim Anderson batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.267 — Donovan Solano batting against Chase Anderson.
- 0.264 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kohei Arihara.
- 0.255 — Corey Seager batting against Justus Sheffield.
- 0.251 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Fleming.
- 0.250 — Tommy La Stella batting against Chase Anderson.
- 0.250 — Yermin Mercedes batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.250 — Joey Wendle batting against Daniel Duffy.
- 0.249 — Yadier Molina batting against Joe Ross.
There’s a light schedule today, made even lighter with the Twins at the Athletics postponed due to COVID-19 tracing. The White Sox and Red Sox play the traditional Patriots Day game at 11 AM EDT, so if you are choosing a player from that game, be sure to get your pick in early.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.279, 0.722 — Tim Anderson batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.281, 0.695 — Justin Turner batting against Justus Sheffield.
- 0.267, 0.693 — Donovan Solano batting against Chase Anderson.
- 0.264, 0.692 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kohei Arihara.
- 0.251, 0.671 — Whit Merrifield batting against Josh Fleming.
- 0.238, 0.671 — Trea Turner batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.229, 0.669 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Lucas Giolito.
- 0.244, 0.666 — Hanser Alberto batting against Josh Fleming.
- 0.249, 0.660 — Yadier Molina batting against Joe Ross.
- 0.241, 0.659 — Jean Segura batting against Kevin Gausman.
Outside of Tim Anderson, the probabilities are very low today. Anderson and Turner are tied for the consensus first pick, but this would not be a day I would double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!