April 19, 2021

Weekly Look at Offense

Offense collapsed in week two of the 2021 season, with the majors seeing 8.08 runs per game. You can view the weekly fluctuations in scoring since 2015 on this spreadsheet. For the season, scoring now stands at 8.64 runs per game compared to 9.31 runs per game per the first two weeks of the 2019 season.

Note that two changes introduced into the game this season were designed to increase action. A ball that doesn’t carry as far would reduce home runs, and restrictions on substances that improve a pitcher’s grip on the ball would reduce spin, making the ball easier to put in play. All the following comparisons are through the same point in time in 2019.

Home runs are indeed down. The first two weeks of 2019 produced 2.60 home runs per game, this year 2.27 HR/G. Walks are down slightly, 6.95 per game to 6.74 per game. That’s the good news. The bad news is that strikeouts are up again, 17.74 per game in 2019, 18.32 per game in 2021. The really bad news is that non home run hits (NHRH) are way down, from 13.83 per game two years ago to 13.11 per game this season. So far, the changes reduced home runs, but reduced action even more. In this context, it’s not surprising we saw two no-hitters already. Overall, there is one less batter reaching base per game, 24.24 in 2019, 23.15 in 2021.

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