For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.341 — Tim Anderson batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.327 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
- 0.320 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.317 — Trea Turner batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.311 — Nick Castellanos batting against Eric Lauer.
- 0.303 — David Fletcher batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.302 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.302 — Josh Reddick batting against David Price.
- 0.300 — Eric Hosmer batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.300 — Jake Cronenworth batting against Kyle Freeland.
Anderson is off to a 12 for 26 start to July. He only struck out four times.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.341, 0.762 — Tim Anderson batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.317, 0.742 — Trea Turner batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.327, 0.732 — Jean Segura batting against Garrett Richards.
- 0.288, 0.730 — Michael Brantley batting against Nestor Cortes.
- 0.311, 0.726 — Nick Castellanos batting against Eric Lauer.
- 0.303, 0.717 — David Fletcher batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.279, 0.714 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Vincent Velasquez.
- 0.320, 0.713 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.296, 0.712 — Jose Iglesias batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.302, 0.711 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Dallas Keuchel.
Anderson is the unanimous first pick with Segura the consensus second choice. Anderson has by far been the most popular choice for the NN this season. This is the 28th time he was the top starter of the day.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!