For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.318 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.317 — Bo Bichette batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.304 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.304 — Rafael Ortega batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.303 — David Fletcher batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.303 — Ketel Marte batting against Blake Snell.
- 0.301 — Starling Marte batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.298 — Trea Turner batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.297 — Amed Rosario batting against Tyler Alexander.
- 0.297 — Adam Frazier batting against Madison Bumgarner.
It looks like a good night to stay up and watch the Blue Jays hit. Hernandez may not get as much press as the baby blues, but he slashes .304/.348/.503 this season. The high BA with a relatively low OBP makes him a good hit streak candidate.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.303, 0.745 — Ketel Marte batting against Blake Snell.
- 0.298, 0.730 — Trea Turner batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.303, 0.727 — David Fletcher batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.317, 0.724 — Bo Bichette batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.268, 0.720 — Michael Brantley batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.285, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Shane McClanahan.
- 0.318, 0.718 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.297, 0.714 — Adam Frazier batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.301, 0.714 — Starling Marte batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.288, 0.710 — Jose Iglesias batting against Zack Greinke.
Ketel Marte once again jumps to the top of this list, and is the consensus second pick. Bichette is the consensus first pick.
The position player hit average is now up to .219 for the season. Still historically low, but much better than the start of the year.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!