For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.340 — Adam Frazier batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.331 — Michael Brantley batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.326 — Yonathan Daza batting against Jake Arrieta.
- 0.325 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Jake Arrieta.
- 0.324 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.324 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jake Arrieta.
- 0.321 — Tim Anderson batting against Cole Irvin.
- 0.314 — Jake Cronenworth batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.314 — Eric Hosmer batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.313 — Connor Joe batting against Jake Arrieta.
The Padres and Rockies play this afternoon. The game looks ripe for hits on both sides, so get your picks in early!
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.331, 0.751 — Michael Brantley batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.321, 0.749 — Tim Anderson batting against Cole Irvin.
- 0.340, 0.737 — Adam Frazier batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.309, 0.736 — Trea Turner batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
- 0.307, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.324, 0.721 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.284, 0.718 — Luis Arraez batting against Zach Plesac.
- 0.324, 0.718 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jake Arrieta.
- 0.226, 0.712 — Ketel Marte batting against Ranger Suarez.
- 0.326, 0.710 — Yonathan Daza batting against Jake Arrieta.
Brantley performed rather poorly for the NN. He came out on top 16 times before today, with the expectation of 12 hits. He delivered ten times. He is the consensus top pick today, with Adam Frazier the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!