For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.379 — Ketel Marte batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.322 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jon Lester.
- 0.321 — Harold Castro batting against Jon Lester.
- 0.304 — Pavin Smith batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.301 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Jon Lester.
- 0.301 — David Fletcher batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.300 — Michael Brantley batting against Mike Minor.
- 0.299 — Josh Reddick batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.298 — Josh Rojas batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.294 — Akil Baddoo batting against Jon Lester.
Marte did not start Tuesday night, but did pinch-hit and homer. The Diamondbacks do try to keep him healthy. Despite being the best hitter on the team, Arizona is just 13-44 when he plays, a .228 winning percentage.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.379, 0.784 — Ketel Marte batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.292, 0.729 — Trea Turner batting against Blake Snell.
- 0.300, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Mike Minor.
- 0.272, 0.723 — Tim Anderson batting against Robbie Ray.
- 0.301, 0.721 — David Fletcher batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.321, 0.717 — Harold Castro batting against Jon Lester.
- 0.322, 0.713 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Jon Lester.
- 0.268, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting against Nick Pivetta.
- 0.286, 0.703 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bailey Ober.
- 0.288, 0.700 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Mike Minor.
Marte posts another high probability game, fifty-five points higher than Turner. Castro and Schoop are tied for the consensus double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!