For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.328 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.328 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.324 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.322 — Tim Anderson batting against Max Kranick.
- 0.319 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.314 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.310 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
- 0.307 — Corey Dickerson batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.304 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.303 — Nick Castellanos batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.303 — Luis Robert batting against Max Kranick.
You can double down on Nick Castellanos today, as the Reds and Cardinals play a doubleheader. Seven inning games, however, provide less of an opportunity for hits.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.322, 0.747 — Tim Anderson batting against Max Kranick.
- 0.310, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Max Fried.
- 0.284, 0.733 — Ketel Marte batting against Yu Darvish.
- 0.328, 0.730 — Bo Bichette batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.328, 0.725 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.301, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Logan Gilbert.
- 0.319, 0.722 — Nick Castellanos batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.324, 0.720 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Matt Harvey.
- 0.303, 0.719 — Nick Castellanos batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.314, 0.711 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Matt Harvey.
Anderson is not on the illjured list, but has not started much lately as the White Sox try to save his legs for the playoffs. Blue Jays Bichette and Hernandez are the consensus top picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!