For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.340 — Trea Turner batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.319 — Buster Posey batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.309 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.305 — Ketel Marte batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.304 — Brandon Crawford batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.298 — Evan Longoria batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.298 — Michael Brantley batting against Logan Gilbert.
- 0.292 — Steven Duggar batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.290 — Starling Marte batting against Jimmy Lambert.
- 0.288 — Salvador Perez batting against Alex Wells.
- 0.288 — Corey Seager batting against J.A. Happ.
As a catcher, Posey is a tough pick as he tends to get more days off than other players. On the other hand, the Giants are locked in a tight division race, so they’ll want Posey’s bat in the game as much as possible. It looks like there are plenty of other Giants who might fit the bill.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.340, 0.753 — Trea Turner batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.305, 0.744 — Ketel Marte batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.309, 0.728 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.298, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Logan Gilbert.
- 0.319, 0.719 — Buster Posey batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.286, 0.707 — Harold Castro batting against Dillon Peters.
- 0.290, 0.707 — Starling Marte batting against Jimmy Lambert.
- 0.273, 0.703 — Luis Arraez batting against Aaron Civale.
- 0.288, 0.703 — Salvador Perez batting against Alex Wells.
- 0.284, 0.700 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Jackson Kowar.
Turner is the unanimous first choice, with Ketel Marte and Castellanos tied for the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!