The Blue Jays ripped the Orioles for 22 runs today as Toronto takes the game 22-7, a score more appropriate for March 14. In that game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes one for three with two walks, home run number 44, and an RBI. Guerrero’s .319 BA led the AL entering play today, and second place Michael Brantley did not play. Guerrero is not tied with Shohei Ohtani for the AL home run lead. He is fourth in RBI at 102, five behind leader Jose Abreu.

This spreadsheet calculates the probability of Guerrero at least tying Ohtani for the home run lead (.512), and the probability of Guerrero beating Brantley for the batting title (.638). I also ran a simulation of the RBI race against Abreu (ignoring the players in between), and Guerrero has a .204 chance of finishing in at least a tie with Abreu. Multiplying those together gives Guerrero a 0.067 probability of winning the triple crown. Not bad.