The three-way tie for the two AL Wild Card slots looks better today as the Blue Jays pass both the Yankees and Red Sox to occupy first place in the race by percentage points. The Red Sox have more wins, but the Blue Jays are the same number of games over .500 with two games in hand. The probability of a three-way tie here stands at 0.019, with the most likely number of wins for a tie at 90. The probability of a five-way tie dropped a bit as Oakland and Seattle also lost on Sunday down to 0.0002. The most likely number of wins for a five-way tie would be 89.

The probability of a four-way tie for the second NL Wild Card slot increased to 0.0019 as the Cardinals beat the Reds while the Padres and Phillies lost. This seems to be the slot no one wants, as no team can stay hot enough to take control of the race. The most likely number of wins for the four-way tie is 84.

The probability of a three-way tie in the NL East took a hit as the Braves and Mets win but the Phillies lose. The probability now stands at 0.0041, with the most likely number of wins for a tie at 83. The Braves host the Phillies for three games the last weekend of the season, so things will need to aligned perfectly going into that series to make this happen. I suspect this will be the first scenario to disappear.

Update: Here are the best outcomes for today:

• The Yankees can go either way against the Twins. It’s better for the three-way tie if they win, it’s probably better for the five-way tie if they lose.
• The Blue Jays fall to the Rays. They are in first place, and with games in hand they can make up wins. It would not be tragic if they won, however.
• The Cardinals defeat the Mets. A three-way tie for the second NL Wild Card slot seems to be the best path to a massive tie in the NL, so I’ll go for that. A Mets win would raise the probability of a thee-way tie in the NL East.
• The Padres lose to the Giants.
• The Mariners defeat the Red Sox. This is the most important game today for keeping a five-way tie viable.