Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays goes one for five with a home run the Blue Jays defeat the Rays 8-1. He now sits atop the AL home run race with 45 dingers and his .318 BA leads the AL. The only home run of the night comes on the homer, so the now trails AL leader Jose Abreu by four. I use this spreadsheet to calculate the probability of winning the home run and batting titles. He now has a .627 probability of winning the home run title and a .601 probability of winning the batting title. I simulated RBIs for the rest of the season versus Abreu, and he now has a .227 probability of finishing ahead of Abreu. So tonight raised his probability of winning the triple crown to 0.086. Stay tuned.