Toronto now sits atop the AL Wild Card race as they defeat the Rays 8-1 Monday night while Seattle defeated Boston 5-4. With the Yankees winning, New York and Boston are both one game back, but the Yankees, with two fewer games played, have the better winning percentage. Oakland did not play, so the probability of a five-way tie increases to 0.00023, while the three-way tie probability goes up to 0.019, almost 2%. The most likely win total for the five-way tie is 89 wins, 90 wins for the three-way tie.

With the Cardinals winning and the Padres losing Monday night, the probability of a four-way tie for the second slot of NL Wild Card goes up to 0.0021. St. Louis and San Diego are now tied, 0.5 games behind the Reds. Both the Reds and Phillies were idle on Monday. The three way-tie between the Reds, Cardinals, and Padres has a probability of 0.019. So we have two races with nearly a 2% chance of a three-way tie! The most likely number of wins for the four-way tie is 84, and that number holds for the three-way tie as well.

The the three-way tie in the NL East is on life support as the Mets are now down seven games in the loss column with 17 games to play after the Cardinals beat them Monday night. The probability stands at 0.0032. We will see what happens today. The most likely win total for a three-way tie is 83.

The best outcomes for today:

• The Reds fall to the Pirates.
• The Yankees can go either way against Baltimore, with a slight advantage to them losing.
• The Phillies nose out the Cubs.
• The Blue Jays lose to the Rays.
• The Mets win over the Cardinals.
• The Braves fail against the Rockies.
• The Athletics down the Royals.
• The Padres go either way against the Giants.
• The Mariners sink the Red Sox.