For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.348 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.332 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.328 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.324 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.319 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.315 — Trea Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.311 — Freddie Freeman batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.309 — Tyler Naquin batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.308 — Jean Segura batting against Alec Mills.
- 0.308 — Max Schrock batting against Mitch Keller.
The Log5 list indicates a good day for the Blue Jays against the Rays as Michael Wacha allowed a .286 BA this season with a low walk rate.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.348, 0.742 — Nick Castellanos batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.315, 0.740 — Trea Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.301, 0.737 — Tim Anderson batting against Janson Junk.
- 0.328, 0.733 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.332, 0.733 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.298, 0.725 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohei Arihara.
- 0.324, 0.724 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.285, 0.723 — Ketel Marte batting against Julio Urias.
- 0.319, 0.722 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.304, 0.720 — Luis Robert batting against Janson Junk.
Tim Anderson is back from the disabled list and is always someone you want to consider for a pick. Both systems agree on Castellanos as the top choice, with Bichette and Hernandez the consensus second picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!