Tuesdays games produced two excellent three-way Massive Tie races. In the American League race for the wild card, the Yankees and Red Sox won while the first place Blue Jays lost. That puts those three teams the same number of games over .500, the virtual tie. The Blue Jays and Yankees are technically tied for first place, with the Red Sox percentage points back. That makes the probability of a three-way tie for the two wild card slots 0.0223. Note that the highest this probability could go is 0.25, which would be all three teams tied on the last day of the season. The Mariners and Athletics lost, putting the probability of a five-way tie at 0.00015. The most likely number of wins for a three-way tie remains at 90.

In the race for the second NL Wild Card slot, St. Louis takes control as they beat the Mets, while the Reds, Padres, and Phillies all lose. The Cardinals now lead this race by 1/2 game over the Reds and one game over the Padres, with the Phillies three back. Like the AL, this is turning into a three-team race. The probability of that three-way tie rose to 0.0194, while the chance of a four-way tie dropped to 0.0019. The most likely number of wins for a three-way tie is 84.

All three NL East contenders lost on Tuesday, dropping the probability of a three-way tie in that division to 0.0031. This one is on life support. The most likely number of wins for the three-way tie would be 82.

The best results for today to move toward massive ties would be:

• The Blue Jays fall to the Rays.
• The Mariners defeat the Red Sox.
• The Reds beat the Pirates.
• The Yankees lose to the Orioles.
• The Phillies win over the Cubs.
• The Mets down the Cardinals.
• The Braves succumb to the Rockies.
• The Athletics find victory against the Royals.
• The Padres slay the Giants.

For the three-way tie in the AL Wild Card, we really want the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox to have the same result every day, win or lose.