The Braves visit the Brewers Friday to kick-off the middle seeds round of the NLDS. Here is a comparison of the offenses:
| Offense (NL Ranks) | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers |
| Runs per Game | 4.91 (3rd) | 4.56 (6th) |
| Batting Average | .244 (5th-T) | .233 (14th-T) |
| On Base Percentage | .319 (6th) | .317 (8th-T) |
| Slugging Average | .435 (2nd) | .396 (11th) |
| Home Runs | 239 (2nd) | 194 (8th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 76% (8th) | 80% (2nd-T) |
How did the Brewers manage to finish sixth in runs scored per game when none of their major offensive indicators are above average? I don’t see any situational batting lines that might indicate why they exceeded their averages so much. They did hit better with runners in scoring position than overall, but not that much better. The Braves, in fact, led the majors with an .823 OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Brewers came in ninth in the NL at .759. They were good at taking an extra base, but the Braves were better. I have to believe that the Brewers run scoring rate is soft, and they are really not that good.
The Braves, on the other hand, finished third in the NL in scoring despite Ronald Acuna Jr playing just 82 games. Acuna was hitting .283/.394/.596 when he went down. The Braves were 41-41 when Acuna played, 47-32 without him. Jorge Soler did a nice job filling in, especially the power numbers.
Here is a comparison of the pitching and defense.
| Pitching and Defense (NL Ranks) | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.07 (4th) | 3.85 (3rd) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.88 (4th) | 3.50 (3rd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.0 (7th) | 10.1 (1st) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.3 (6th) | 3.4 (7th-T) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 25.9 (6th) | 23.4 (5th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .708 (3rd-T) | .708 (3rd-T) |
These pitching staffs appear to be evenly matched, with the Brewers gaining their advantage due to their higher strikeout rate. With fewer balls in play, Brewers pitchers allowed the second lowest number of hits in the NL. That also helped them reduce home runs, a strength of the Braves. The defenses are even, so the Ks could be the factor if the Brewers win.
This is a tough one to call. Atlanta appears to be the better team, but not my much. The Brewers score runs much more often than they should. Is that an illusion or a talent? I am going with the Brewers at 51% to win the series, mostly on the home field advantage.