The 2022 series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished tied sixteenth in the majors and ninth in the National League in 2021 with 4.47 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Dave Martinez batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.26
- Probable lineup: 5.17
- Worst lineup: 4.82
- Regressed lineup: 4.71
The spread between the best and worst Nationals lineups comes out at 0.44, the highest of any team so far. The Nationals order contains extremes of talent from Juan Soto at the top to Makiel Franco at the bottom. Poor lineup construction hurts the Nationals more than say the Braves, where the talent is more evenly distributed.
The Nationals pretty much nail it. The sixth best lineup computed by the LAT in the list matches the five through nine hitters in the default Washington lineup. The LAT puts Soto in the lead-off slot, but bunching the correct hitters together gets a team most of the way there. The Nationals capture 80% of the optimal order.
These project show the Nationals with a much stronger offense than we saw in 2021. Nelson Cruz is a nice addition, and his presence might get Soto more pitches to hit. But they also found some useful players who at least get on base, which of course leads to more plate appearances for Soto.
Back when Frank Robinson managed, he farmed out the lineup construction to an associate. That person used the LAT to get ideas, and this lineup makes me wonder if that is still the case.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Houston Astros
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Boston Red Sox
- San Francisco Giants
- Chicago White Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
- Oakland Athletics
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Minnesota Twins
- San Diego Padres
*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.