For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.281 — Tim Anderson batting against Zach Plesac.
- 0.277 — Adam Frazier batting against Taylor Hearn.
- 0.266 — Ty France batting against Taylor Hearn.
- 0.266 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.265 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
- 0.261 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.260 — Frank Schwindel batting against Bryse Wilson.
- 0.259 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Michael Pineda.
- 0.259 — Corey Seager batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.258 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
- 0.258 — J.P. Crawford batting against Taylor Hearn.
- 0.258 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.258 — Josh Bell batting against Zach Davies.
Due to playing in the same division, Anderson sees the young Plesac quite often. So far, Plesac got somewhat better of the deal as their encounters resulted in a 4 for 18 with no walks and five strikeouts. Two of Anderson’s hits were home runs, however.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.281, 0.708 — Tim Anderson batting against Zach Plesac.
- 0.277, 0.673 — Adam Frazier batting against Taylor Hearn.
- 0.266, 0.673 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.261, 0.664 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.259, 0.663 — Corey Seager batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.265, 0.662 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
- 0.258, 0.661 — Alex Verdugo batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.259, 0.656 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Michael Pineda.
- 0.266, 0.655 — Ty France batting against Taylor Hearn.
- 0.257, 0.653 — Rafael Devers batting against Kevin Gausman.
It’s a very similar list with Anderson and Frazier the consensus double down choices. Note that the probabilities remain low and as the drop in offense pulls down the overall ability to collect a hit.
There is a light schedule today as teams getaway, with most games in the afternoon. Get your picks in early!
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!