For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method generates these top picks:
- 0.287 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.284 — Harold Castro batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.278 — Ke’Bryan Hayes batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.273 — Jeimer Candelario batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.272 — Willi Castro batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.272 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.271 — Ketel Marte batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.270 — Austin Meadows batting against Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.268 — Michael Chavis batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.267 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Anderson.
As the Rockies and Tigers saw their game washed out on Friday, the list here is very similar to yesterday. Cabrera goes for his 3000th hit. The teams do play a double header, so if picking a Detroit player, make sure you get the game against Senzatela.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.258, 0.688 — Tim Anderson batting against Dylan Bundy.
- 0.259, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Yu Darvish.
- 0.271, 0.672 — Ketel Marte batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.267, 0.671 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Anderson.
- 0.278, 0.666 — Ke’Bryan Hayes batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.256, 0.666 — Nick Castellanos batting against Adrian Houser.
- 0.264, 0.665 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Jose Urquidy.
- 0.260, 0.663 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tarik Skubal.
- 0.261, 0.663 — Manny Machado batting against Tyler Anderson.
- 0.284, 0.662 — Harold Castro batting against Antonio Senzatela.
Anderson faces a suspension for an obscene gesture toward some fans, so keep you eye out for that. It would appear that Ke’Bryan Hayes is the consensus top choice. Note that the sort of this data goes out more than three decimal places, so Anderson is slightly better than Turner in this list.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!