For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.280 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Spenser Watkins.
- 0.279 — Austin Riley batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.277 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
- 0.276 — Nolan Arenado batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.276 — Jose Ramirez batting against Cole Irvin.
- 0.274 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
- 0.272 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Carlos Hernandez.
- 0.272 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Carlos Hernandez.
- 0.271 — Travis D’Arnaud batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.271 — Ty France batting against Jesus Luzardo.
Bogaerts owns a .304/.372/.497 slash line since the start of 2020, and a .377/.407/.506 line this season. The three year line is a good one for extending hit streaks, but the 2022 line is outstanding.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.280, 0.696 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Spenser Watkins.
- 0.264, 0.693 — Tim Anderson batting against Jose Suarez.
- 0.258, 0.688 — Trea Turner batting against Beau Brieske.
- 0.277, 0.687 — Manny Machado batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
- 0.270, 0.685 — Michael Brantley batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.274, 0.682 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
- 0.271, 0.681 — Ty France batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.259, 0.679 — Jose Iglesias batting against Connor Overton.
- 0.279, 0.675 — Austin Riley batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.270, 0.671 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Merrill Kelly.
Bogaerts comes out on the top of two quite different lists, with Manny Machado the consensus second pick. Note all the probabilities are low today.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Why was Aaron Judge rewarded with a pass last night on “beat the streak” Is a home run not considered a hit?
I don’t know. There might have been a technical glitch. I had that happen the other day with someone who did not get a hit. It was reported as a pass, but my streak ended. The new app seems to be a bit buggy.