Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to offense in the previous season at the same point in time. Through three full weeks, major league games average 8.17 runs per game compared to 8.64 runs per game in 2021. The dip of nearly half a run per game comes from a dip in home runs, from 2.29 per game to 1.81 per game.

The good news story of this drop in production is that all three-true outcomes are down. Walks come in 6.55 per game in 2022 versus 6.67 per game in 2021. Strikeouts drop from 18.30 per game to 16.98 per game, although part of that is the tackiness issue. As one might expect, more balls in play means more non-home run hits, and those are up from 13.05 per game to 13.52 per game. That doesn’t quite make up for the drop in homers and walks, as times on per game drop from 23.03 per game to 22.74 per game. The desired adjustment from fewer three-true outcomes to more balls in play is taking place. We’ll see if it accelerates once hitters become more aware that home runs are not easy anymore.

Week three saw games score 8.48 runs per game, the highest scoring week of the season. It is still low compared to recent years, but 2017 was lower and that turned out to be a decent offensive season.