Exploring Baseball Data With R builds a model of home runs based on 2021 data to show how many fewer home runs are being hit in 2022.

What is interesting is that many of the current home run sluggers such as Judge, Trout, Schwarber and Ohtani have really been hurt by the deadened 2022 ball. Ohani’s residual, for example, is -9 which means that his 2022 home run total is 9 less than the predicted total using the 2021 ball model and his 2022 launch variables. Judge, Trout, Schwarber and Freeman would all be predicted to have higher 2022 home run counts if they were hitting balls with the carry characteristics of the 2021 ball.

BaseballWithR.WordPress.com

The probability of Judge hitting at least 62 home runs currently stands at 0.0035. With four more home runs, the probability would be 0.033, or about ten times higher.