Five Thirty Eight looks at the probability of which teams will win the two Wild Cards and three division races up for grabs. The result that surprised me the most comes from the AL Central, where the highest probability for winning the division belongs to the Chicago White Sox:

In the closest race of the bunch, no AL Central team carries even a 50 percent chance of winning the division. (The Chicago White Sox lead with a 46 percent chance.) Minnesota has been in first place for most of the season, but both of its pursuers have gained ground in recent weeks as the Twins were only 3-7 in their last 10 games before the All-Star break. There are a lot of ways to handicap this battle over the rest of the season, but much of it depends on whether you favor the team with the superior underlying 2022 stats but the more difficult future schedule (Minnesota); the injury-ravaged preseason favorite with the weaker stats but the easiest remaining schedule in baseball (Chicago); or the fun, young upstart sitting in between (Cleveland). Despite the slim edge our model gives to the White Sox, uncertainty in this division reigns supreme.

FiveThirtyEight.com

The Twins played the easiest schedule in the majors so far, but project to the thirteenth toughest over the remaining months. The White Sox played the fifth toughest schedule in the first half, but project to the easiest schedule over the second half. There’s been almost no luck involved in their winning percentages. The Twins and Guardians are right on their Pythagorean projections, while the White Sox are one game better. I’ve been watching White Sox games from the opposing team’s view, and the consensus among those announcers is that the White Sox as a team do not have their heads in the game. Maybe that’s true and maybe it’s not but we’ll see if that gets fixed in the second half.

It’s also nice to see that the Orioles and Marlins are still in the race, and the Mariners own the highest probability of making the playoffs among the current wild card contenders.