For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Kuhl.
- 0.300 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Anibal Sanchez.
- 0.300 — Nico Hoerner batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.295 — Donovan Solano batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.295 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Kris Bubic.
- 0.290 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chad Kuhl.
- 0.286 — Austin Riley batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.285 — Alec Bohm batting against Jose Quintana.
- 0.285 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Bryan Garcia.
- 0.277 — Dansby Swanson batting against Madison Bumgarner.
- 0.277 — Tim Anderson batting against James Kaprielian.
Turner extended his hit streak to fifteen games on Thursday, and is now batting .375/.385/.656 during the streak. He struck out just eight times in 66 plate appearances. It won’t hurt that the game is at Coors Field tonight.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.306, 0.740 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Kuhl.
- 0.300, 0.721 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Anibal Sanchez.
- 0.277, 0.720 — Tim Anderson batting against James Kaprielian.
- 0.300, 0.714 — Nico Hoerner batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.295, 0.711 — Donovan Solano batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.285, 0.710 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Bryan Garcia.
- 0.290, 0.710 — Freddie Freeman batting against Chad Kuhl.
- 0.295, 0.702 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Kris Bubic.
- 0.262, 0.701 — Luis Arraez batting against Blake Snell.
- 0.286, 0.699 — Austin Riley batting against Madison Bumgarner.
The two systems agree on Turner and Goldschmidt as the double down picks. Goldschmidt should be well rested after not traveling to Canada.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!