For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
They Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.308 — Tim Anderson batting against Brad Keller.
- 0.303 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.300 — Luis Arraez batting against Matt Manning.
- 0.294 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.294 — Michael Brosseau batting against Bryse Wilson.
- 0.293 — Hunter Renfroe batting against Bryse Wilson.
- 0.290 — Ty France batting against Jameson Taillon.
- 0.289 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.287 — Manny Machado batting against Jose Urena.
- 0.286 — Kolten Wong batting against Bryse Wilson.
The Rockies play a doubleheader at the Padres, so watch which game you choose if you go the Machado route. Anderson is also facing a suspension, but those take some time to appeal. Turner extended his hit streak to 19 games.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.308, 0.741 — Tim Anderson batting against Brad Keller.
- 0.303, 0.734 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.300, 0.728 — Luis Arraez batting against Matt Manning.
- 0.301, 0.720 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ryan Weathers.
- 0.294, 0.713 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.274, 0.703 — Starling Marte batting against Cory Abbott.
- 0.290, 0.698 — Ty France batting against Jameson Taillon.
- 0.269, 0.697 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Keegan Thompson.
- 0.284, 0.697 — Yonathan Daza batting against Ryan Weathers.
- 0.275, 0.697 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Drew Rasmussen.
The two systems agree on Anderson and Turner as the double down picks. Anderson does not hit Keller well, however, 7 for 32 with a walk and ten strikeouts. Turner is 5 for 15 against Wood with no walks and no strike outs, but he was hit by a pitch.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!