For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.333 — Luis Robert batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.309 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.308 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.300 — Jeff McNeil batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.299 — Andrew Vaughn batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.297 — Oscar Gonzalez batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.296 — Amed Rosario batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.295 — Rafael Devers batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.294 — Andres Gimenez batting against Marco Gonzales.
- 0.293 — Starling Marte batting against Ryan Feltner.
Robert keeps topping the list as his current hit streak is up to 14 games. It looks like it should be a good offensive day for the White Sox.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.333, 0.746 — Luis Robert batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.288, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.280, 0.712 — Donovan Solano batting against Aaron Nola.
- 0.300, 0.711 — Jeff McNeil batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.308, 0.709 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.283, 0.709 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Marcus Stroman.
- 0.274, 0.708 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Garcia.
- 0.309, 0.707 — Jose Abreu batting against Jordan Lyles.
- 0.293, 0.707 — Starling Marte batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.283, 0.702 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Kutter Crawford.
A somewhat different list, although Robert tops both. Jimenez and McNeil tie for the consensus double down slot.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!