For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.300 — Donovan Solano batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.284 — Nico Hoerner batting against Luis Cessa.
- 0.280 — Luis Garcia batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.277 — Luis Robert batting against JP Sears.
- 0.271 — Joey Meneses batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.265 — Nick Madrigal batting against Luis Cessa.
- 0.264 — Alejo Lopez batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.264 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Josiah Gray.
- 0.263 — Kyle Farmer batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.262 — T.J. Friedl batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.262 — Eloy Jimenez batting against JP Sears.
Note that the Giants and Brewers play a doubleheader, so be careful picking from those games.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.300, 0.710 — Donovan Solano batting against Adrian Sampson.
- 0.277, 0.707 — Luis Robert batting against JP Sears.
- 0.280, 0.696 — Luis Garcia batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.264, 0.692 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Josiah Gray.
- 0.284, 0.689 — Nico Hoerner batting against Luis Cessa.
- 0.247, 0.685 — Luis Arraez batting against Nestor Cortes.
- 0.262, 0.677 — Eloy Jimenez batting against JP Sears.
- 0.261, 0.674 — Jose Abreu batting against JP Sears.
- 0.271, 0.672 — Joey Meneses batting against Adam Wainwright.
- 0.252, 0.671 — Corey Dickerson batting against Josiah Gray.
There is a very limited schedule today, and no big probabilities of a hit. The two systems agree on Solano, with Robert and Garcia tied for the double down choice. Give Robert’s recent injury, I might go with Garcia, as he owns a six game hit streak.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!