The Phillies and the Cardinals get underway Friday at 2 PM EDT in St. Louis with the first NL Wild Card series. The two teams boast similar offenses. The Cardinals tied for third place in the NL with 4.77 runs per game, the Phillies finished fifth at 4.61 runs per game. The Cardinals did a better job of getting on base, the Phillies hit for more power. The Cardinals produced many more doubles than the Phillies, but Philadelphia accumulated more triples and home runs to slug two points higher than St. Louis. Both teams steal bases at a good clip. The teams are even except the Cardinals do a better job of getting on base.

On the pitching side, the Phillies allow 0.3 runs per game more than the Cardinals, 4.23 runs per game versus 3.93 runs per game. Cardinals pitchers struck out the fewest batters in the NL in 2022 and were also at the low end in walks allowed. It was easy to put the ball in play against St. Louis, but that did not result in an inordinate number of hits. St. Louis pitchers were about league average in that category. The defense helped out a great deal, as FanGraphs ranks them as the second best defense in the NL. The Phillies came in third worst. In terms of three-true outcomes, the Phillies are probably the better team, but the defense mitigated that advantage.

It’s tough for me to find an advantage for the Phillies. The Cardinals batter produced poorly since the start of September, but the team still managed to go 17-14. The Phillies did not exactly come on as gangbusters, 14-17 in the same period. My gut is that the teams are somewhat closer in ability than the numbers show, and it could be that a very short series can hide the Phillies deficits. I have to go with the Cardinals, however, and a 52% chance of winning the series.