The second AL Wild Card series gets underway in Toronto at 4 PM EDT Friday as the Mariners visit the Blue Jays. Offensively, Toronto simply sports the better lineup. The Blue Jays finished second in the AL in runs per game at 4.78, while the Mariners finished eighth at 4.26. Note, however, that the teams were nearly even in home runs, the Blue Jays hitting 200, the Mariners 197. The Blue Jays led the AL in hits and were second in doubles, both far above what the Mariners produced. Seattle was second in walks, and a walk and home run isn’t a bad way to generate offense.

On the pitching and defense side, the Mariners have the edge in runs allowed per game, beating Toronto 3.85 to 4.19. The Blue Jays ranked second in preventing walks in the AL, so that’s a strength against a strength there. If the Jays pitchers can reduce the Mariners batters to an OBP closer to their .230 BA, the Blue Jays should win easily. Seattle pitching and defense is very good at reducing hits, however. That’s another strength on strength, so the Mariners might be able to pull Toronto’s batting average down closer to Seattle’s level, evening things out.

This is where the toss up comes in. When pitching staffs are good at keeping batters off base, the home runs matter a lot more. We might see 3-2, 2-1 scores in this series, where the team with two homers in the game wins.

My guess is that Seattle pitching can’t knock down Toronto enough, so I’ll give the Blue Jays a 53% chance of winning the series.