The 2022 World Series gets underway Friday at 8 PM EDT with the Philadelphia Phillies facing the Houston Astros. It’s the high and the low as the team with the best regular season record in the AL faces the playoff team with the worst record from the NL.
The following table compares the two offenses:
| 2022 Offense | Houston Astros (AL Ranks) | Philadelphia Phillies (NL Ranks) |
| Runs per Game | 4.55 (3rd) | 4.61 (5th) |
| Batting Average | .248 (5th) | .253 (4th) |
| On-Base Average | .319 (4th) | .317 (6th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .424 (3rd) | .422 (3rd) |
| Home Runs | 214 (2nd) | 205 (4th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 79% (3rd) | 79% (4th) |
| BABIP | .278 (12th) | .299 (5th) |
These are two evenly matched offenses. The Phillies are better at generating hits, with a BABIP 21 points higher leading to a five point lead in batting average. The Astros walk enough and generate enough power to lead in both OBP and Slugging Pct. by two points. The team baserunners successfully steal at the same rate. All that led to the Phillies scoring slightly more runs than the Astros.
The BABIP is a little deceiving, as the Astros batters struck out very little. If the Astros could figure out how to raise their BABIP while preserving their low K rate, they would be unstoppable.
We may be underrating the Phillies offense also. They did not have Bryce Harper for a long stretch, and even when he returned it took him a while to continue to recover from his injury. He got his stroke back just in time for the World Series run.
The following table compares the teams on pitching and defense:
| 2022 Pitching and Offense | Houston Astros (AL Ranks) | Philadelphia Phillies (NL Ranks) |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 3.20 (1st) | 4.23 (7th) |
| Earned Run Average | 2.90 (1st) | 3.97 (9th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.5 (1st) | 8.97 (7th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.85 (7th) | 2.92 (4th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 18.5 (1st) | 21.0 (5th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .719 (2nd) | 0.687 (11th) |
This table shows very nicely that the Phillies defensive problems were not errors, but a lack of either range or positioning. The team’s ERA ranked worse than their overall runs allowed per game. A couple of teams with overall higher runs allowed got their by committing errors, so pitchers ERAs looked better. The Phillies simply did not get to the ball. That may come from a lack of range, poor positioning, or a combination of both. Note that the Yankees were a very good defensive team in 2022, but the Astros always seemed to be able to play a New York miscue into runs.
The Astros pitchers clearly outshine the Phillies staff. They posted the best runs allowed per game and best ERA in the NL, and were also first in two of the three-true-outcomes. Even though they ranked seventh in the AL in walks per 9 IP, they posted a lower number than the Phillies who ranked fourth in the NL. They are closely matched in that category.
That helps the Phillies a bit. If walks are eliminated, then the better hitting team, the Phillies, owns a higher OBP. That may not be enough to overcome the other advantages owned by the Astros pitchers.
Pitching should win out here for the Astros. I suspect the Phillies offense right now is better than their 4.61 runs per game, but not a whole run better. I make Houston the favorite with about a 0.55 probability of them winning the World Series.