The 2023 series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished seventh in the majors and fifth in the National League in 2022 with 4.61 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Rob Thomson batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.93
• Probable lineup: 4.90
• Worst lineup: 4.68
• Regressed lineup: 4.54

The Phillies show consistent talent throughout the lineup, with a spread of just 0.25 runs between the best and worst batting orders. The default order still manages to capture 88% of the optimum order. While the LAT and the default order fail to agree on every slot, a number of the parings are there. The is agreement on Trea Turner at the top and Bryson Stott batting eighth. Both order pair Darick Hall and Nick Castellanos together, and often Brandon Marsh after Stott.

The disagreement involves Kyle Schwarber, slated to bat second. Due to his power, the LAT likes him fourth. The Phillies batting him second likely is due to the anticipation of the return of Bryce Harper at some point. Harper likely moves Hall out of the order, either by Harper taking over at DH or Schwarber giving up his defensive spot for Harper. With Harper, the LAT still prefers Schwarber fourth, but Harper and Turner bat 1-2. This is a good problem.

Not only does Harper provide upside to these projections, but so does the youth at the bottom of the order. Alec Bohm, Stott, and Marsh are all in their early primes, so there best years should be now. Even without Harper, the Phillies should be one of the top offenses in the NL.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• New York Yankees
• Atlanta Braves
• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Mets
• St. Louis Cardinals

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.