Michael Salfino at 538 likes Justin Verlander’s chance at another great season:
Like Young, Ryan and Roger Clemens before him, Verlander seems to be a pitching unicorn. And this holds true for his rebound from Tommy John surgery, too. Looking at all of the players who had the surgery around Verlander’s time (2019 and 2020), they performed as a group as expected — about 80 percent made it back to play again, and their FIP was about where it was before.3 Winning a Cy Young Award unanimously in the first year back from surgery is not something anyone could have predicted, but Verlander did it anyway.
FiveThirtyEight.com
Note that Nolan Ryan improved at age 40 as he finally decided not to walk batters. Verlander learned that lesson a long time ago.