The 2023 series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers finished tenth in the majors and sixth in the National League in 2022 with 4.48 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Craig Counsell batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.88
- Probable lineup: 4.80
- Worst lineup: 4.62
- Regressed lineup: 4.47
The Brewers serve as another example of a team consistent throughout the lineup, shown by the low spread between the best and worst possible batting orders. The LAT disagrees everywhere expect the eighth slot. It would appear the Brewers put the three players they know well at the top of the order, with everyone else needing to prove themselves.
Christian Yelich leads off. Injuries sapped the power he displayed in 2018 and 2019, but he still gets on base. The LAT would like to see him ninth as a secondary lead-off man, but someone with his contract is not going to bat ninth.
The offense should do fine getting on base, but there is a lack of power to drive those base runners around to score. William Contreras draws the clean-up slot with a projected .459 slugging percentage, but the LAT likes the .462 projection of Willy Adames there. Note that these are the two highest projections on the team, which really speaks to the lack of power. I would expect Milwaukee to make a move for a home run bat as the season progresses. I might expect this team to run a lot.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- New York Yankees
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Mets
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Houston Astros
- Boston Red Sox
*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.