The 2023 series on team offense continues with the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished thirteenth in the majors and eighth in the National League in 2022 with 4.35 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Bob Melvin batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.18
• Probable lineup: 5.09
• Worst lineup: 4.80
• Regressed lineup: 4.66

The Padres look poised to improve greatly on offense in 2023, and that’s without Fernando Tatis Jr.in the batting order. The lineup construction for the first three weeks of the season looks good. The LAT would rather flip Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto, putting Soto first and Bogaerts second, but the table setters are in the right place. I somewhat agree with the Padres going against putting their worst hitter eighth. With the power at the top of the order, having two better OBP player ahead of the top of the order makes sense.

The Padres flip the LAT down the order, only really agreeing on Austin Nola in the ninth slot. Getting everyone near the right position means that San Diego picks up most of the value of the optimum lineup.

What happens when Tatis returns as the right fielder? I suspect the lineup is devised to so that there won’t be many changes in the batting order. I suspect the person to lose a slot is whomever performs worse between Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter. Giving the nod to Carpenter at the moment, Jake Cronenworth would move to fifth, with Tatis taking over at cleanup. That group yields a 5.46 runs per game for the optimum lineup, and a 5.40 for the default lineup. The Padres blow away the competition at that point.

If Tatis returns, the Padres field a great offense. If Tatis doesn’t return, they are still excellent. This is the season for San Diego to make the push for a World Championship.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• New York Yankees
• Atlanta Braves
• Toronto Blue Jays
• New York Mets
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Houston Astros
• Boston Red Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• San Francisco Giants
• Texas Rangers

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.