Team Offense, Baltimore Orioles

The 2023 series on team offense continues with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles finished twentieth in the majors and tenth in the American League in 2022 with 4.16 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Brandon Hyde batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.69
Probable lineup: 4.60
Worst lineup: 4.41
Regressed lineup: 4.34

There are a number of pair-wise differences between the Orioles default lineup and the LAT calculation. The Adley Rutschman and Cedric Mullins pair are 1-2 in the LAT, 2-1 in the default lineup. I have to go with the Orioles here, as it is difficult for a catcher to lead off.

Gunnar Henderson bats behind clean-up hitter Anthony Santander in the LAT, rather than in front of him in the default lineup. Henderson played just a few games in the majors, so his projection might be off it a good way.

The LAT bats Jose Mateo eighth and Adam Frazier ninth. The default lineup puts Mateo, the worse hitter, at the bottom of the order. Give that most of the players are in the right section of the lineup, this should work well for the Orioles.

This project might well be a floor. Seven of the nine batters are in their prime years, three in their early primes. Only one is over 30 years old. If this lineup is going to do great things, now is the time. Orioles fans have been waiting awhile for Baltimore to get back on top.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.

March 14, 2023

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