The 2023 series on team offense concludes with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished last in the majors in 2022 with 3.44 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That A. J. Hinch batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.17
- Probable lineup: 4.08
- Worst lineup: 3.88
- Regressed lineup: 4.00
The Tigers do not appear to be trying. Three of their default lineup batters project to an OBP under .300. The highest projected OBP of the nine belongs to Nick Maton, and he’s slotted to hit eighth! They do have some inexperienced players in the lineup, so they might do much better than their projections. For example, Kerry Carpenter has only just begun based on his great 2022 performances at AA and AAA. On the other hand, he’s not a young prospect, playing 2023 as a 25-year-old. Staying in the minors a long time is not a sign of greatness.
I am not expecting much from the Tigers offense in 2023, and they can easily finish last again.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- New York Yankees
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Mets
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Houston Astros
- Boston Red Sox
- Milwaukee Brewers
- San Francisco Giants
- Texas Rangers
- San Diego Padres
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Cleveland Guardians
- Colorado Rockies
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
- Chicago White Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds
- Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Washington Nationals
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Miami Marlins
- Oakland Athletics
*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.
I haven’t even seen any reports that Miggy is in the best shape of his life.