The division previews begin with the NL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine or ten position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Atlanta Braves

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.67
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.76
• Core Winning Percentage: .695

The Braves core looks better than it did a year ago, thanks in large part to their outstanding pitching core. The pitchers come in at 3.76 RC/G, the lowest in the division. The top two starters Spencer Strider and Max Fried compare favorably to the Mets top two, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. A.J. Minter projects to be the best closer in the division, while the back of the rotation remains solid. Given their ages, Strider and Fried appear less likely to decline that the Mets starters.

Offensively, what the Braves lost at shortstop in replacing Dansby Swanson with Orlando Arcia they gained by the addition of Sean Murphy at catcher. The team remains strong up the middle. This actually a great division for strength up the middle, and the Braves, Mets, and Phillies are almost indistinguishable.

To top it all off, the Braves position players remain young, with Ronald Acuna Jr.and Austin Riley the offensive stars. Michael Harris II is not far behind. This is going to be a good offense for a long time.

With both the best projected offense and best projected pitching, the Braves will be an easy pick to win the division once again.

New York Mets

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.50
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.11
• Core Winning Percentage: .641

The field a solid lineup, but without superstars. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo top the batter projections at 6.4 RC/G, with six other batters in the fives. This batting order leaves little chance for opposing pitchers to rest. It’s also possible that Francisco Lindor has the season the Mets expected when they signed him to a long term deal, and that would give the team some upside.

As far as the Mets rotation goes, my analysis likely underestimates Kodai Senga. Without MLB experience, I plugged him in at 4.5 RC/G. He pitched extremely well in Japan, so maybe 3.5 RC/G would be a better estimate. Edwin Diaz may prove to be a big loss, as David Robertson at closer projects to be a run per game higher.

The Mets put together a very solid team. We’ll see if that’s enough to carry them to a title.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.19
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.07
• Core Winning Percentage: .620

The Phillies start the season with a hole in their offense as Jake Cave projects to 3.75 RC/G versus 7.94 RC/G for the recovering Bryce Harper. The good news is that Harper’s return gives the Phillies offense some upside.

The Phillies were not so lucky with Rhys Hoskins, who tore his ACL and will miss all of 2023. Hoskins projected at 5.87 RC/G. His replacement, Darick Hall, comes in at 4.93 RC/G. Hall showed good power in the minors, and at seasonal age 27 he should be at his peak. He may be the right person at the right time for the Phillies, as there probably is upside to his projection.

The addition of Trea Turner gives the Phillies the best shortstop in the division. They are a good mix of veterans and youngsters, as the veterans are just hitting 30 and the youngsters are just reaching their primes.

The pitching core remains solid, with no superstar but no one terrible. Bailey Falter and Michael Plassmeyer are in their early primes, so there is upside on the pitching side.

The Phillies need to stay close in the division race, and hope that Harper’s bat gives them a nice boost toward the end of the season.

Miami Marlins

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.90
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.25
• Core Winning Percentage: .570

The Marlins took a step backward from 2022. While Luis Arraez gives the Marlins a very solid hitter up the middle, the team has yet to develop young offensive talent outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr. The starting lineup looks rather old and not able to compete with the three big clubs in the division.

The starting staff of 2022 looked like a nicely developing unit, but that seems to be just Sandy Alcantara now.

It’s not a bad team, it’s just that I expected them to keep moving forward, and it appears they took a step back.

Washington Nationals

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.73
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.53
• Core Winning Percentage: .422

The .422 core winning percentage represents a horrible team. Joey Meneses is the only hitter projected to perform well. Given his limited time in the majors, that projection could easily be an over estimation. MacKenzie Gore is the only decent pitcher in the core, and he doesn’t project to be all that good.

This team could easily lose 110 games. The good news is the only place to go is up.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Atlanta Braves 35%
• New York Mets 30%
• Philadelphia Phillies 25%
• Miami Marlins 8%
• Washington Nationals 2%

The Braves built a great team for the short and long term. It’s going to take quite the effort to unseat them this year, or significant injuries to the core of the team. The Mets and Phillies are well positioned to make the playoffs, and we’ll see how they improve themselves in the middle of the season for that kind of run.