The division previews continue with the AL West. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine or ten position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Houston Astros

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.57
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.64
• Core Winning Percentage: .701

The Astros remain the strongest team in the division, although they no longer seem invincible. The offensive strength of Astros is no longer up the middle. Third base, first base, rightfield, and designated hitter produce most of the offense. Their 4.44 RC/G for the middle positions now ranks fourth in the division.

Note that the Astros decided to replace the injured Jose Altuve with David Hensley. He did a good job in his minor league career of getting on base, and continued that in his cup of coffee in 2022 and his spring training numbers this season. He also stands a foot taller than Jose Altuve, which could be disconcerting to Astros fans.

With or without Altuve, the Astros offense is more than strong enough for the Houston core pitchers. Their 3.64 RC/G is by far the lowest in the division. With Justin Verlander gone, all five projected starters pitch in their prime years, most in their early primes. The Astros might get quite a few seasons out of this unit. On top of that, they also sport the best closer in the AL West. It will be difficult to pick another team in this division to finish on top.

Seattle Mariners

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.19
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.27
• Core Winning Percentage: .597

I suspect the Mariners take a step backward this season in terms of the standings. The Mariners didn’t do anything wrong with their roster. It seems they did not do enough to chase down the Astros and prevent the Angels from passing them.

I like the additions of Kolten Wong and Teoscar Hernandez to the lineup. Wong helps them become stronger up the middle, while Hernandez is the rare DH who can hit extremely well. Sophomore Julio Rodriguez projects to a healthy 6.69 RC/G. He may mature and explode into a superstar, or the league may identify weaknesses and make life tougher for him. He’s produced high BABIPs throughout his minor league career. If he adjusts to striking out less, we could be looking at a high average, high power hitter capable of a triple crown.

The weak spot right now for the Mariners sits on the pitching side of the equation, but there is plenty of upside there. Luis Castillo‘s down 2021 season bring his RC/G up to 4.16, but 2021 seems to be the anomaly in his career. Robbie Ray could return to his 2021 form that led to a Cy Young award. Both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are in their early primes with solid minor league numbers.

The Mariners will be good, but just how good depends on good things happening with the pitching staff.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.63
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.13
• Core Winning Percentage: .650

Is this the season the Angels come out on top? For the first time in a while, they seem to have surrounded their three stars with quality complementary players. Logan O’Hoppe, Jared Walsh, Brandon Drury, Taylor Ward, and Hunter Renfroe all project to be better than 5.0 RC/G hitters. Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout appear to be healthy, and that makes Rendon’s 5.07 RC/G a floor, not a ceiling. Add Shohei Ohtani to the mix and the Angels project to produce the best offense in the division.

The starting staff behind Ohtani is okay. They are all good enough to win with that offense. Carlos Estavez takes over at closer, and there is plenty of upside there as his projection does not adjust for his time in Colorado.

This team is designed to win with their bats, and we’ll see if there is enough behind the big three to accomplish that feat this season.

Texas Rangers

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.95
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.32
• Core Winning Percentage: .567

I expected the Rangers to build beyond this in 2023. Jacob deGrom is a great addition to the rotation, but the rest of the starters project to high RC/G, and I can’t argue with those projections. With Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in the middle of the infield, I’d expect the team to be offensively strong up the middle. They get canceled however, by the weak projections for catcher Jonah Heim and centerfielder Bubba Thompson.

In Thompson’s case, there is a great deal of upside. His projection is based on a cup of coffee in the majors. He did produce power in the minors. The Rangers could certainly use that.

It seems to me that the Rangers need to go 31-11 in deGrom’s starts, then hope they can play .500 in their other games. That would at least put them back in the playoffs.

Oakland Athletics

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.53
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.50
• Core Winning Percentage: .503

Having a core winning percentage just over .500 does not bode well for a team. Connor Capel is the only offensive player who projects over 5.0 RC/G, and that’s based on a very small sample size of MLB playing time. His minor league stats don’t look that great. The pitchers are all about the same, with RC/G in the mid to high fours. There are no stars in Oakland, let alone superstars. It looks like there will be no there in Oakland again this season.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Houston Astros 34%
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 31%
• Seattle Mariners 25%
• Texas Rangers 8%
• Oakland Athletics 2%

The Astros are still the team to beat, but Angels GM Perry Minasian quietly put together a team that can challenge. Along with the Mariners, three very good teams will fight for the title and with luck make it a down to the wire race.