The division previews continue with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine or ten position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.62
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.27
• Core Winning Percentage: .634

The Cardinals project to field the best core offense in the division. Led by Paul Goldschmidt at 7.5 RC/G the lineup is solid up and down. Wilson Contreras greatly improves the offense at catcher, bringing that position back to the level of Yadier Molina‘s best seasons.

The core starters look a little weak, especially with Steven Matz in the rotation instead of the injured Adam Wainwright. The core starters comes in at 4.40 RC/G fourth best in the division.

Overall, the Cardinals look like a strong contender for the NL Central title, but probably not the favorite.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.28
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.58
• Core Winning Percentage: .586

The Brewers boast the best core pitching in the division. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta all should do a great job of keeping runs off the board. With Devin Williams at closer, the Brewers pitchers are nearly 0.6 RC/G better than their nearest division rivals.

Milwaukee did not splurge on offense, but every player is solid. No one reaches 6.0 RC/G in their projection, but only two hitters are under 5.0 RC/G. The combination of great pitching and solid hitting produces the highest projected winning percentage in the division.

Chicago Cubs

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.79
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.52
• Core Winning Percentage: .541

The Cubs did a nice job in picking up Dansby Swanson to be the long term solution at shortstop. They did not immediately surround him with other offensive talent, however. Eric Hosmer, Cody Bellinger, and Trey Mancini all have their best seasons behind them, and none projects to as much as 5.0 RC/G. Maybe Bellinger finally gets his swing back. If so, the Cubs would look a lot better, but still not in the range to compete with the Brewers and the Cardinals.

The pitching staff is okay. The pitcher to watch here is Hayden Wesneski. He sported a low walk rate with a decent K rate in the minors, and it also showed up in his short time in the majors. He’s also tends to induce ground balls, so the defense will need to be on their toes behind him.

If the Cubs have some things go right, they could show improvement, but it seems the talent they need to develop to surround Swanson is not there yet.

Cincinnati Reds

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.07
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.14
• Core Winning Percentage: .601

The Reds look better than I expected. The core pitchers rank second in the division with their 4.14 RC/G, although I think Connor Overton‘s project is a bit optimistic. Alexis Diaz projects to the best closer in the division.

Joey Votto moves to designated hitter and Wil Myers takes over at first base. Myers may not have lived up to his early hype, but he turned out to be a solid hitter and he and Votto together improve the Reds offense. Avoiding injuries to Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India would help too.

The Reds are a solid contender for a nice jump in the standings from 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.70
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.01
• Core Winning Percentage: .469

Looking at the core of the Pirates, once can see why Bryan Reynolds asked out. He is a star with little surrounding him. The Pirates project to four pitchers over 5.0 RC/G, while only three batters project that high. It’s a weak offense with a worse pitching staff. Even with a couple of good moves in picking up Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana, it will be tough to finish less than 30 games out this season.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Milwaukee Brewers 45%
• St. Louis Cardinals 35%
• Cincinnati Reds 12%
• Chicago Cubs 6%
• Pittsburgh Pirates 2%

The Brewers started out strong in 2022 and faded. We’ll see if they can win the marathon this season.