For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.276 — Bo Bichette batting against Spencer Turnbull.
- 0.275 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Spencer Turnbull.
- 0.273 — Wander Franco batting against Corey Kluber.
- 0.267 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.266 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Vincent Velasquez.
- 0.263 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bryse Wilson.
- 0.262 — Harold Ramirez batting against Corey Kluber.
- 0.260 — Matt Chapman batting against Spencer Turnbull.
- 0.258 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
- 0.255 — Randy Arozarena batting against Corey Kluber.
- 0.255 — Kevin Kiermaier batting against Spencer Turnbull.
It looks like a good day for the Blue Jays, as Turnbull allowed a .394 BA in his first two starts. He only stuck out four batters in eight innings. Bichette is batting .327 as he cut down on his K’s this season.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.276, 0.699 — Bo Bichette batting against Spencer Turnbull.
- 0.253, 0.691 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Lodolo.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Wander Franco batting against Corey Kluber.
- 0.275, 0.689 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Spencer Turnbull.
- 0.266, 0.688 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Vincent Velasquez.
- 0.263, 0.687 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bryse Wilson.
- 0.267, 0.685 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.262, 0.681 — Harold Ramirez batting against Corey Kluber.
- 0.258, 0.669 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
- 0.251, 0.668 — Manny Machado batting against Bryse Wilson.
It’s a very similar list. Trea Turner finishes high here, while he does not appear on the NN list at all. Over the years, Turner tends to do well in the NN analysis. Franco and Guerrero tie for the consensus second pick.
Rookie Jordan Walker of the Cardinals hit in his first twelve games, tied for the longest hit streak in the majors right now with Bryson Stott of the Phillies. The NN gives Walker a .638 probability of getting at least one hit today, mostly because all his numbers are highly regressed to the mean hit average of .222. He has struck out eleven times in forty eight PA, and I don’t believe that bodes well for a long hit streak.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!