For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.350 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.311 — Bo Bichette batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.309 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.309 — Elias Diaz batting against Braxton Garrett.
- 0.303 — Austin Hays batting against Clarke Schmidt.
- 0.301 — Tommy Edman batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.300 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.296 — Nick Castellanos batting against Dylan Dodd.
- 0.296 — Bryan De La Cruz batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.291 — Nolan Gorman batting against Luke Weaver.
As Arraez approaches 200 PA for the season, his regressed hit average is up to .329. That’s over 100 above the .220 league mark. So the single season half of the Log5 calculation against a pitcher a bit above that league mark sends the matchup number through the roof. Arraez did leave the game last night with a cramp, so check the lineup early. There is a limited schedule with four afternoon games.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.350, 0.773 — Luis Arraez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.311, 0.735 — Bo Bichette batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.309, 0.712 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.296, 0.704 — Bryan De La Cruz batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.309, 0.704 — Elias Diaz batting against Braxton Garrett.
- 0.283, 0.701 — Nico Hoerner batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.290, 0.700 — Yonathan Daza batting against Braxton Garrett.
- 0.296, 0.700 — Nick Castellanos batting against Dylan Dodd.
- 0.300, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.301, 0.696 — Tommy Edman batting against Luke Weaver.
The two systems are in agreement on the top three, with Bichette looking like a good double down choice today.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!