For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.344 — Luis Arraez batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.339 — Bo Bichette batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.308 — Whit Merrifield batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.308 — Ronald Acuna batting against Dinelson Lamet.
- 0.306 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.305 — Orlando Arcia batting against Dinelson Lamet.
- 0.294 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.289 — Kevin Kiermaier batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.287 — Nico Hoerner batting against Cole Irvin.
- 0.284 — Nolan Arenado batting against Tylor Megill.
Arraez returns to action in a three-game slump that dropped his batting average to .378. He needs another 5 for 5 day to start flirting with .400 again. It looks like a good day for the Blue Jays offense, with Bichette at the top of that group once again.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.344, 0.774 — Luis Arraez batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.339, 0.749 — Bo Bichette batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.306, 0.715 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.308, 0.710 — Ronald Acuna batting against Dinelson Lamet.
- 0.273, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting against John Brebbia.
- 0.305, 0.704 — Orlando Arcia batting against Dinelson Lamet.
- 0.308, 0.703 — Whit Merrifield batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.273, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against JP Sears.
- 0.287, 0.697 — Nico Hoerner batting against Cole Irvin.
- 0.258, 0.696 — Joey Meneses batting against Sandy Alcantara.
Both methods agree that Arraez and Bichette are today’s double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!