For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.358 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Ortiz.
- 0.342 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.331 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.317 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.313 — Manny Machado batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.312 — Harold Ramirez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.304 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.303 — Michael Harris II batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.299 — Eddie Rosario batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.299 — Bo Bichette batting against James Kaprielian.
- 0.298 — Ozzie Albies batting against Luke Weaver.
It looks like some Braves might give Arraez a run for his money today as Atlanta faces Weaver of the Reds. Weaver allowed a .302/.352/.566 slash line this season, and a .283/.338/.501 slash line since the start of 2021. Arcia and Acuna both collect a good amount of hits, so they might turn out to be a good double down pair from a single game.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.358, 0.784 — Luis Arraez batting against Luis Ortiz.
- 0.342, 0.735 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.299, 0.726 — Bo Bichette batting against James Kaprielian.
- 0.331, 0.726 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.312, 0.724 — Harold Ramirez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.317, 0.706 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.313, 0.705 — Manny Machado batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.303, 0.704 — Michael Harris II batting against Luke Weaver.
- 0.281, 0.703 — Joey Meneses batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.268, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting against J.P. France.
While Arraez continues to be off the charts, top of the rest show higher probabilities of a hit in a game today. Arcia comes in as the double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!